Cross-serotype interactions and disease outcome prediction of dengue infections in Vietnam
File(s)s41598-019-45816-6.pdf (2.22 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Aguas, R
Dorigatti, I
Coudeville, L
Luxemburger, C
Ferguson, NM
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Dengue pathogenesis is extremely complex. Dengue infections are thought to induce life-long immunity from homologous challenges as well as a multi-factorial heterologous risk enhancement. Here, we use the data collected from a prospective cohort study of dengue infections in schoolchildren in Vietnam to disentangle how serotype interactions modulate clinical disease risk in the year following serum collection. We use multinomial logistic regression to correlate the yearly neutralizing antibody measurements obtained with each infecting serotype in all dengue clinical cases collected over the course of 6 years (2004-2009). This allowed us to extrapolate a fully discretised matrix of serotype interactions, revealing clear signals of increased risk of clinical illness in individuals primed with a previous dengue infection. The sequences of infections which produced a higher risk of dengue fever upon secondary infection are: DEN1 followed by DEN2; DEN1 followed by DEN4; DEN2 followed by DEN3; and DEN4 followed by DEN3. We also used this longitudinal data to train a machine learning algorithm on antibody titre differences between consecutive years to unveil asymptomatic dengue infections and estimate asymptomatic infection to clinical case ratios over time, allowing for a better characterisation of the population's past exposure to different serotypes.
Date Issued
2019-06-28
Date Acceptance
2019-06-04
Citation
Scientific Reports, 2019, 9 (1)
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
9
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the
copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the
copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31253823
PII: 10.1038/s41598-019-45816-6
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
9395
Date Publish Online
2019-06-28