Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.
Date Issued
2014-06-09
Date Acceptance
2014-05-06
Citation
Space Weather, 2014, 12 (6), pp.395-405
ISSN
1539-4956
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
395
End Page
405
Journal / Book Title
Space Weather
Volume
12
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2014 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
Grant Number
ST/H002383/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
EVENT
PREDICTIONS
SIMULATION
SKILL
numerical modelling
space weather
stochastic processes
0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences
Publication Status
Published