Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis
File(s)
Supporting information
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The World Health Organization aims to verify elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in 12 endemic countries by 2030. Serological assays detecting IgG4 antibodies against the Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 antigen guide decision-making regarding start- and stop-mass ivermectin treatment, post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance. Transmission models are crucial for understanding anti-Ov16 IgG4 seroprevalence dynamics. Uncertainty associated with the parasite stage(s) stimulating seroconversion and duration of antibody persistence has hitherto hindered progress. We use the individual-based stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, to test hypotheses regarding the timing of seroconversion and seroreversion. We fit the model to data from (treatment-naïve) Gabon and validate it using data from Togo (four decades of control). The best-fit hypothesis is that seroconversion is elicited by near-patent/patent infection. The duration of antibody persistence remains uncertain. Our findings support the use of mechanistic transmission models to refine serological thresholds for start- and stop-treatment, and aid interpretation of post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance serological signals.
Date Issued
2026-09-17
Date Acceptance
2026-07-31
Citation
Nature Communications, 2026, 17
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
17
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
10.1038/s41467-026-76562-9
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 9924
Date Publish Online
2026-08-19