Modelling and projecting the response of local assemblage composition to land use change across Colombia
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding the impact of land use change within assemblages is fundamental to mitigation policies at local and regional scale. Here, we aim to quantify how site-level terrestrial assemblages are responding to land use change in Colombia a mega-diverse country and to project future biodiversity under different scenarios of land use change associated with climate change policies. Location: Colombia (northern South America). Methods: We collated original biodiversity data from 17 publications (285 sites) that examined how human impact affects terrestrial biodiversity in Colombia. From each site we estimated compositional intactness (i.e. compositional similarity to undisturbed sites). We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate how these measures of local biodiversity vary across land use habitats. Using space-for-time substitution, we applied our estimates to hindcast biodiversity changes since 1500 and project future changes under climate change policies of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results: Assemblages in urban, cropland and pasture sites were compositionally very different from those in primary vegetation. We infer that average compositional intactness has been reduced by 18% across Colombia to date, with strong regional variation. The best RCP scenario for future biodiversity is GCAM-RCP4.5, a path that favours the expansion of secondary forests under a strong carbon market; while the worst is MESSAGE-RCP8.5, ‘the business-as-usual’ scenario. Main conclusions: Land use change has driven an increasing change in the composition of ecological assemblages in Colombia. By 2095, the implementation of carbon markets policy of climate change from GCAM-RCP4.5 could mitigate these changes in community composition. In contrast, the business-as-usual scenario MESSAGE-RCP8.5 predicts a steep community change placing the quality of ecosystems at risk.
Date Issued
2016-08-21
Date Acceptance
2016-08-01
Citation
Diversity and Distributions, 2016, 22 (11), pp.1099-1111
ISSN
1366-9516
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1099
End Page
1111
Journal / Book Title
Diversity and Distributions
Volume
22
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the accepted version of the following article, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12478/abstract
Sponsor
The Royal Society
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Grant Number
WM100051
NE/J011193/1
Subjects
Ecology
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biological Sciences
Publication Status
Published