Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density
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Published online version
Author(s)
Beaghton, PJ
Burt, Austin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Synthetic gene drive constructs are being developed to control disease vectors, invasive species, and other pest species. In a well-mixed random mating population a sufficiently strong gene drive is expected to eliminate a target population, but it is not clear whether the same is true when spatial processes play a role. In species with an appropriate biology it is possible that drive-induced reductions in density might lead to increased inbreeding, reducing the efficacy of drive, eventually leading to suppression rather than elimination, regardless of how strong the drive is. To investigate this question we analyse a series of explicitly solvable stochastic models considering a range of scenarios for the relative timing of mating, reproduction, and dispersal and analyse the impact of two different types of gene drive, a Driving Y chromosome and a homing construct targeting an essential gene. We find in all cases a sufficiently strong Driving Y will go to fixation and the population will be eliminated, except in the one life history scenario (reproduction and mating in patches followed by dispersal) where low density leads to increased inbreeding, in which case the population persists indefinitely, tending to either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. These dynamics arise because Driving Y males have reduced mating success, particularly at low densities, due to having fewer sisters to mate with. Increased inbreeding at low densities can also prevent a homing construct from eliminating a population. For both types of drive, if there is strong inbreeding depression, then the population cannot be rescued by inbreeding and it is eliminated. These results highlight the potentially critical role that low-density-induced inbreeding and inbreeding depression (and, by extension, other sources of Allee effects) can have on the eventual impact of a gene drive on a target population.
Date Issued
2022-03-03
Date Acceptance
2022-02-22
Citation
Theoretical Population Biology, 2022, 145
ISSN
0040-5809
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Theoretical Population Biology
Volume
145
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Silicon Valley Community Foundation
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35247370
PII: S0040-5809(22)00013-2
Grant Number
OPP1141988
N/A
OPP1210755 - INV-006610
Subjects
Difference equations
Discrete time dynamical systems
Genetic biocontrol
Local mate competition
Neimark-Sacker bifurcation
Population dynamic model
Publication Status
Published online
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2022-03-03