Reaching elimination of onchocerciasis transmission with long-term vector control and ivermectin treatment in Togo
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Basanez, Maria-Gloria
Amaral, Luis JTDMD
Walker, Martin
Hamley, Jonathan
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa implemented vector control (VC) and ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) to eliminate blindness, intensifying efforts in Special Intervention Zones (SIZ). Togo aims to eliminate onchocerciasis transmission (EOT) by 2030. We use the EPIONCHO-IBM model to project microfilarial prevalence trends across Togo’s five regions by SIZ status, MDA coverage (65%-80%) and VC efficacy (60%-100%). We compare projections with prevalence surveys (400 villages, 1970-2017) stratified by hypoendemic, mesoendemic, hyperendemic, and holoendemic baseline endemicity, and calculate EOT probabilities for 2024, 2027, and 2030. Combined VC and MDA reduced prevalence nationwide. After cessation of VC, prevalence continued to decline in hypo-to mesoendemic areas under annual MDA, while hyperendemic areas required biannual MDA. In
holoendemic areas, prevalence rebounded even with biannual MDA, indicating that alternative strategies are needed. EPIONCHO-IBM reproduces Togo’s onchocerciasis trends throughout five decades of intervention and provides a transferable framework to guide policy towards 2030 goals.
holoendemic areas, prevalence rebounded even with biannual MDA, indicating that alternative strategies are needed. EPIONCHO-IBM reproduces Togo’s onchocerciasis trends throughout five decades of intervention and provides a transferable framework to guide policy towards 2030 goals.
Date Issued
2026-01-21
Date Acceptance
2025-12-02
Citation
Nature Communications, 2026, 17
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
17
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. © The Author(s) 2025.
License URL
Identifier
10.1038/s41467-025-67451-8
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
779
Date Publish Online
2025-12-19