Identifying and responding to outlier demand in revenue management
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Published version
Author(s)
Rennie, Nicola
Cleophas, Catherine
Sykulski, Adam M
Dost, Florian
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Revenue management strongly relies on accurate forecasts. Thus, when extraordinary events cause outlier demand, revenue management systems need to recognise this and adapt both forecast and controls. Many passenger transport service providers, such as railways and airlines, control the sale of tickets through revenue management. State-of-the-art systems in these industries rely on analyst expertise to identify outlier demand both online (within the booking horizon) and offline (in hindsight). So far, little research focuses on automating and evaluating the detection of outlier demand in this context. To remedy this, we propose a novel approach, which detects outliers using functional data analysis in combination with time series extrapolation. We evaluate the approach in a simulation framework, which generates outliers by varying the demand model. The results show that functional outlier detection yields better detection rates than alternative approaches for both online and offline analyses. Depending on the category of outliers, extrapolation further increases online detection performance. We also apply the procedure to a set of empirical data to demonstrate its practical implications. By evaluating the full feedback-driven system of forecast and optimisation, we generate insight on the asymmetric effects of positive and negative demand outliers. We show that identifying instances of outlier demand and adjusting the forecast in a timely fashion substantially increases revenue compared to what is earned when ignoring outliers.
Date Issued
2021-04-24
Date Acceptance
2021-01-01
Citation
European Journal of Operational Research, 2021, 293 (3), pp.1015-1030
ISSN
0377-2217
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1015
End Page
1030
Journal / Book Title
European Journal of Operational Research
Volume
293
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000643877000017&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
Revenue management
Simulation
Forecasting
Outlier detection
Functional data analysis
FORECASTING METHODS
SIMULATION
ACCURACY
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-01-06