The Limits of Bioenergy: A Complex Systems Approach to Land Use Dynamics and Constraints
File(s)
Author(s)
Strapasson, A
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
This paper summarises a PhD thesis recently defended by the author at Imperial
College London. The aim is to present a novel methodology to obtain an
understanding of the potential limits of bioenergy by using a complex systems
approach for assessing land use dynamics and constraints. Although bioenergy is
classified as a renewable energy source, land is a finite resource and its expansion
limited. The anthropogenic demands on land result from a combination of multiple
provisioning services. These include global food consumption, dietary preference,
crop and livestock yields, land use integration, wastes and residues, and bioenergy
yields and forms, as well as the allocation of surplus land for forestry and energy
crops, and the potential role of negative emission technologies. Thus, bioenergy is just
one part of a complex land-use system. The general hypothesis is that there are
fundamental limits to the overall scale and rate of the sustainable expansion of
bioenergy, which can be assessed by means of combinations of empirical data,
mapping tools and complex systems models. To this end, a novel methodological
approach is proposed, which is based on two original integrated models. The first one
is termed the Global Calculator Land Use Change Model (GCLUC), developed as
part of the Global Calculator project, in which land is freely allocated worldwide and
food security is assumed a priority. The second considers land for dedicated energy
crops as a delimited reserve, by integrating Hubbert’s curve principles (originally
proposed for peak oil assessments) in agro-ecological zoning schemes (as recently
done for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil), resulting in a new model here termed greenHubbert.
The results show ranges of bioenergy potentials and expansion rates in the
context of different land use futures. The potential public policies necessary to support
sustainable bioenergy are also discussed. Finally, the conclusions show that, indeed,
there are fundamental limits to bioenergy, and these limits are dynamic over time.
College London. The aim is to present a novel methodology to obtain an
understanding of the potential limits of bioenergy by using a complex systems
approach for assessing land use dynamics and constraints. Although bioenergy is
classified as a renewable energy source, land is a finite resource and its expansion
limited. The anthropogenic demands on land result from a combination of multiple
provisioning services. These include global food consumption, dietary preference,
crop and livestock yields, land use integration, wastes and residues, and bioenergy
yields and forms, as well as the allocation of surplus land for forestry and energy
crops, and the potential role of negative emission technologies. Thus, bioenergy is just
one part of a complex land-use system. The general hypothesis is that there are
fundamental limits to the overall scale and rate of the sustainable expansion of
bioenergy, which can be assessed by means of combinations of empirical data,
mapping tools and complex systems models. To this end, a novel methodological
approach is proposed, which is based on two original integrated models. The first one
is termed the Global Calculator Land Use Change Model (GCLUC), developed as
part of the Global Calculator project, in which land is freely allocated worldwide and
food security is assumed a priority. The second considers land for dedicated energy
crops as a delimited reserve, by integrating Hubbert’s curve principles (originally
proposed for peak oil assessments) in agro-ecological zoning schemes (as recently
done for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil), resulting in a new model here termed greenHubbert.
The results show ranges of bioenergy potentials and expansion rates in the
context of different land use futures. The potential public policies necessary to support
sustainable bioenergy are also discussed. Finally, the conclusions show that, indeed,
there are fundamental limits to bioenergy, and these limits are dynamic over time.
Date Issued
2015-07-10
Date Acceptance
2015-07-10
Citation
Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, 2015
ISSN
1999-6918
Publisher
ISSS
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences
Copyright Statement
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5
Identifier
http://journals.isss.org/index.php/proceedings59th
Source
59th Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2015-08-02
Finish Date
2015-08-07
Coverage Spatial
Berlin