Renewable hydrogen trade in a global decarbonised energy system
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Published version
Author(s)
Alanazi, Khalid
Mittal, Shivika
Hawkes, Adam
Shah, Nilay
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Renewable hydrogen has emerged as a potentially critical energy carrier for achieving climate change mitigation goals. International trade could play a key role in meeting hydrogen demand in a globally decarbonized energy system. To better understand this role, we have developed a modelling framework that incorporates hydrogen supply and demand curves and a market equilibrium model to maximize social welfare. Applying this framework, we investigate two scenarios: an unrestricted trade scenario where hydrogen trade is allowed between all regions globally, and a regional independence scenario where trade is restricted to be intra-regional only. Under the unrestricted trade scenario, global hydrogen demand could reach 234 Mt by 2050, with 31.2% met through international trade. Key trade routes identified include North Africa to Europe, the Middle East to Developing Asia, and South America to Japan and South Korea. In the regional independence scenario, most regions could meet their demand domestically, except for Japan and South Korea due to self-insufficiency. Finally, this analysis reveals that producers in North Africa and South America are likely to gain more economic value from international trade compared to other producing regions. The results offer key insights for policymakers and investors for shaping future hydrogen trade policies and investment decisions.
Date Issued
2025-02-03
Date Acceptance
2024-12-26
Citation
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2025, 101, pp.712-730
ISSN
0360-3199
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
712
End Page
730
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
Volume
101
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.12.452
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2025-01-03