Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.
Date Issued
2019-12
Date Acceptance
2019-07-16
Citation
Epidemics, 2019, 29, pp.1-11
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics
Volume
29
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/).T
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436519300350?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
MR/K010174/1B
HPRU-2012-10080
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Mathematical modelling
Infectious disease epidemiology
Parameter inference
Reproduction number
Serial interval
Disease control
INFLUENZA-A H1N1
RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS
EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER
REAL-TIME
RISK-FACTORS
SERIAL INTERVALS
MOUTH EPIDEMIC
TRANSMISSION
FOOT
DYNAMICS
Disease control
Infectious disease epidemiology
Mathematical modelling
Parameter inference
Reproduction number
Serial interval
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-08-26