Variational inference for Markovian queueing networks
File(s)variational.pdf (869.88 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Perez, Iker
Casale, Giuliano
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Queueing networks are stochastic systems formed by interconnected resources
routing and serving jobs. They induce jump processes with distinctive
properties, and find widespread use in inferential tasks. Here, service rates
for jobs and potential bottlenecks in the routing mechanism must be estimated
from a reduced set of observations. However, this calls for the derivation of
complex conditional density representations, both over the stochastic network
trajectories and rates, and it is considered an intractable problem. Numerical
simulation procedures designed for this purpose do not scale due to high computational costs; furthermore, variational approaches relying on approximating
measures and full independence assumptions are unsuitable. In this paper, we
offer a probabilistic interpretation of variational methods applied to inference
tasks with queueing networks, and show that approximating measure choices
routinely used with jump processes yield ill-defined optimization problems. Yet,
we demonstrate that it is still possible to enable a variational inferential task,
by considering a novel space expansion treatment over an analogue counting
process for job transitions. Overall, we present and compare exemplar use
cases with practical queueing networks, and show that our framework offers
an efficient and improved alternative where existing variational or numerically
intensive solutions fail.
routing and serving jobs. They induce jump processes with distinctive
properties, and find widespread use in inferential tasks. Here, service rates
for jobs and potential bottlenecks in the routing mechanism must be estimated
from a reduced set of observations. However, this calls for the derivation of
complex conditional density representations, both over the stochastic network
trajectories and rates, and it is considered an intractable problem. Numerical
simulation procedures designed for this purpose do not scale due to high computational costs; furthermore, variational approaches relying on approximating
measures and full independence assumptions are unsuitable. In this paper, we
offer a probabilistic interpretation of variational methods applied to inference
tasks with queueing networks, and show that approximating measure choices
routinely used with jump processes yield ill-defined optimization problems. Yet,
we demonstrate that it is still possible to enable a variational inferential task,
by considering a novel space expansion treatment over an analogue counting
process for job transitions. Overall, we present and compare exemplar use
cases with practical queueing networks, and show that our framework offers
an efficient and improved alternative where existing variational or numerically
intensive solutions fail.
Date Issued
2021-09-01
Date Acceptance
2020-11-03
Citation
Journal of/Advances in Applied Probability, 2021, 53 (3), pp.687-715
ISSN
0001-8678
Publisher
Applied Probability Trust
Start Page
687
End Page
715
Journal / Book Title
Journal of/Advances in Applied Probability
Volume
53
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust. This paper has been accepted for publication and will appear in a revised form, subsequent to peer-review and/or editorial input by Cambridge University Press.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Queueing networks
variational methods
Markov jump process
BAYESIAN-INFERENCE
JUMP-PROCESSES
SIMULATION
CHAINS
MODELS
0102 Applied Mathematics
0104 Statistics
Statistics & Probability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-08