Life-cycle portfolio choice with imperfect predictors
File(s)ip_final.pdf (723.45 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Michaelides, Alexandros
Zhang, Yuxin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We study quantitatively how uncertainty in expected stock return predictability affects life-cycle portfolio choice and wealth accumulation in the presence of undiversifiable labor income risk. Households filter information about future expected returns from observed predictors and realized stock returns. Therefore, optimal portfolio choice does not only depend on financial wealth and age, as in more traditional life-cycle models. Counterfactuals demonstrate the magnitude of portfolio demand changes that depend on perceptions about underlying expected returns. On average, life-cycle asset allocation becomes more conservative than models with either i.i.d. stock returns, or with clearer signals about expected stock returns.
Date Issued
2022-02
Date Acceptance
2021-11-08
Citation
Journal of Banking and Finance, 2022, 135, pp.1-22
ISSN
0378-4266
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
22
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Banking and Finance
Volume
135
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621003083
Subjects
0102 Applied Mathematics
1401 Economic Theory
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
Finance
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-15