Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa
File(s)mihpsa viewpoint_accepted.pdf (201.9 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.
Date Issued
2022-07
Date Acceptance
2022-04-01
Citation
The Lancet HIV, 2022, 9 (7), pp.e517-e520
ISSN
2352-3018
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
e517
End Page
e520
Journal / Book Title
The Lancet HIV
Volume
9
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
UNAIDS
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
UNAIDS
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352301822000352?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
2017/778519
INV-006733
MR/R015600/1
2019/974072
WT PC 245878 / CID 3555614
Subjects
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-04-22