Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect
File(s)main180914-JETfinal.pdf (837.44 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Henderson, Vicky
Hobson, David
Tse, Alex Sing lam
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this paper we study a continuous-time, optimal stopping model of an asset sale with prospect theory preferences under pre-commitment. We show for a wide range of value and probability weighting functions, including those of Tversky and Kahneman (1992), that the optimal prospect takes the form of a stop-loss threshold and a distribution over gains. It is skewed with a long right tail. This is consistent with both the widespread use of stop-loss strategies in financial markets, and recent experimental evidence. Moreover, our model with probability weighting in tandem with the S-shaped value function makes predictions for the disposition effect which match in magnitude that calculated by Odean (1998).
Date Issued
2018-11-01
Date Acceptance
2018-10-07
Citation
Journal of Economic Theory, 2018, 178, pp.360-397
ISSN
0022-0531
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
360
End Page
397
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Economic Theory
Volume
178
Copyright Statement
Crown Copyright © 2018 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
1401 Economic Theory
Economic Theory
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-10-10