What have we learnt from palaeoclimate simulations?
File(s)Harrison_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Quaternary_Science.pdf (4.39 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Harrison, SP
Bartlein, PJ
Prentice, IC
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
There has been a gradual evolution in the way that palaeoclimate modelling and palaeoenvironmental data are used together to understand how the Earth System works, from an initial and largely descriptive phase through explicit hypothesis testing to diagnosis of underlying mechanisms. Analyses of past climate states are now regarded as integral to the evaluation of climate models, and have become part of the toolkit used to assess the likely realism of future projections. Palaeoclimate assessment has demonstrated that changes in large-scale features of climate that are governed by the energy and water balance show consistent responses to changes in forcing in different climate states, and these consistent responses are reproduced by climate models. However, state-of-the-art models are still largely unable to reproduce observed changes in climate at a regional scale reliably. While palaeoclimate analyses of state-of-the-art climate models suggest an urgent need for model improvement, much work is also needed on extending and improving palaeoclimate reconstructions and quantifying and reducing both numerical and interpretative uncertainties.
Date Issued
2016-06-17
Date Acceptance
2016-01-21
Citation
Journal of Quaternary Science, 2016, 31 (4), pp.363-385
ISSN
1099-1417
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
363
End Page
385
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Quaternary Science
Volume
31
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2016 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Paleontology
0403 Geology
0406 Physical Geography And Environmental Geoscience
2101 Archaeology
Publication Status
Published