Design and analysis features used in small population and rare disease trials: A targeted review.
File(s)
Author(s)
Partington, Giles
Cro, Suzie
Mason, Alexina
Phillips, Rachel
Cornelius, Victoria
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Frequentist trials in Rare disease/small population trials often require unfeasibly large sample size to detect minimum clinically important differences. A targeted review was performed investigating what design and analysis methods these trials use when facing restricted recruitment. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Targeted Review searching EMBASE and MEDLINE for Phase II-IV RCTs reporting 'rare' disease or 'small population' within title or abstract, since 2009. RESULTS: A total of 6,128 articles were screened with 64 trials eligible (4 Bayesian, 60 frequentist trials). Frequentists trials had planned power ranging 72-90% (median: 80%) but reported recruiting a mean of 6.6% below the planned sample size (n=38) [median 0%, IQR (-5%, 5%)], most used standard type 1 error (52 used 5% and 1 used 1%), and the average standardised effect was high (0.7) with 50% missing their assumed level. Of the 4 Bayesian trials, 3 used informed priors, 2 and 1 trials performed sensitivity analysis for the impact of priors on design and analysis respectively. Historical data, expert consensus, or both were used to construct informative priors. Bayesian trials required 30%-2400% less participants than using frequentist frameworks. CONCLUSION: Bayesian trials required lower sample size through use of informative priors. Most frequentists didn't achieve their target sample size. Bayesian methods offer promising solutions for such trials but are underutilised.
Date Issued
2021-12-12
Date Acceptance
2021-12-07
Citation
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 2021, 144, pp.93-101
ISSN
0895-4356
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
93
End Page
101
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume
144
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34910979
PII: S0895-4356(21)00413-3
Grant Number
NIHR300449
Subjects
Bayesian Methods
Randomised trials
Rare Diseases
Small Populations
Trial Design
Publication Status
Published online
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2021-12-12