System dynamics modelling to formulate policy interventions to optimise antibiotic prescribing in hospitals
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Multiple strategies have been used in the National Health System (NHS) in England to reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing and consumption in order to tackle antimicrobial resistance. These strategies have included, among others, restricting dispensing, introduction of prescribing guidelines, use of clinical audit, and performance reviews as well as strategies aimed at changing the prescribing behaviour of clinicians. However, behavioural interventions have had limited effect in optimising doctors’ antibiotic prescribing practices. This study examines the determinants of decision-making for antibiotic prescribing in hospitals in the NHS. A system dynamics model was constructed to capture structural and behavioural influences to simulate doctors’ prescribing practices. Data from the literature, patient records, healthcare professional interviews and survey responses were used to parameterise the model. The scenario simulation shows maximum improvements in guideline compliance are achieved when compliance among senior staff is increased, combined with fast laboratory turnaround of blood cultures, and microbiologist review. Improving guideline compliance of junior staff alone has limited impact. This first use of system dynamics modelling to study antibiotic prescribing decision-making demonstrates the applicability of the methodology for design and evaluation of future policies and interventions.
Date Issued
2020-08-07
Date Acceptance
2020-07-12
Citation
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2020, 72 (11), pp.2490-2502
ISSN
0160-5682
Publisher
Taylor and Francis
Start Page
2490
End Page
2502
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Operational Research Society
Volume
72
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
NIHR knowledge mobilisation fellowship
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
ESRC
Identifier
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01605682.2020.1796537
Grant Number
KMRF-2015 04 007
HPRU-2012-10047
HPRU-2012-10047
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
System dynamics
systems thinking
decision-making
antimicrobial resistance
antimicrobial stewardship
ANTIMICROBIAL STEWARDSHIP
HEALTH-CARE
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT
PROGRAM
VALIDATION
SIMULATION
BEHAVIOR
Operations Research
01 Mathematical Sciences
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-08-07