Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data.
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.
Date Issued
2023-06-09
Date Acceptance
2023-05-29
Citation
eLife, 2023, 12
ISSN
2050-084X
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Journal / Book Title
eLife
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
© 2023, Pons-Salort et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294299
PII: 76609
Subjects
Disease Outbreaks
England
Enterovirus D, Human
Enterovirus Infections
Humans
Neuromuscular Diseases
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Enterovirus D68
epidemiology
global health
mathematical model
seroepidemiology
viruses
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
ARTN e76609