A framework to assess the economic impact of climate change on wind and solar power generation
File(s)
Author(s)
Hdidouan, Daniel Ali
Type
Thesis
Abstract
Society's dependence on weather systems has broadened to include electricity generation from wind turbines and solar PV systems. Climate change is altering energy flows in the atmosphere, which will affect the economic potential of wind and solar power outputs. This thesis presents a framework to assess the economic impact of climate change on annual average wind and solar power generation.
This thesis highlights the knowledge gaps in economic analysis of future wind and solar resource assessments which consider climate change. It presents an interdisciplinarity framework which combines climate model outputs with technoeconomic modelling of financial metrics. This thesis outlines the proof of concept for this framework, exploring the limitations of global climate models for assessing wind and solar resources, and presents a novel bias-adjustment method to create future projected time series. CMIP5 and MERRA(2) datasets are used due to their accessibility and global scale, enabling results to be produced for anywhere on the globe.
The framework is demonstrated with three case studies which focus on the cost of wind power in the UK, changing icing related losses in the northern hemisphere, and future impacts of climate change on solar PV in China. In all case studies, climate change impacts are projected under low and extreme climate forcing scenarios from the early to the late 21st century.
Results are mixed. The relative change in average-annual capacity factors and levelised cost of energy is between ±2% under low scenarios of climate change and within ±5% for more extreme climate change. The change is also more pronounced later into the 21st century. These results show assessments of future wind and solar power are possible, highlighting that wind and solar power generation remains an attractive investment under all scenarios of climate change.
This thesis highlights the knowledge gaps in economic analysis of future wind and solar resource assessments which consider climate change. It presents an interdisciplinarity framework which combines climate model outputs with technoeconomic modelling of financial metrics. This thesis outlines the proof of concept for this framework, exploring the limitations of global climate models for assessing wind and solar resources, and presents a novel bias-adjustment method to create future projected time series. CMIP5 and MERRA(2) datasets are used due to their accessibility and global scale, enabling results to be produced for anywhere on the globe.
The framework is demonstrated with three case studies which focus on the cost of wind power in the UK, changing icing related losses in the northern hemisphere, and future impacts of climate change on solar PV in China. In all case studies, climate change impacts are projected under low and extreme climate forcing scenarios from the early to the late 21st century.
Results are mixed. The relative change in average-annual capacity factors and levelised cost of energy is between ±2% under low scenarios of climate change and within ±5% for more extreme climate change. The change is also more pronounced later into the 21st century. These results show assessments of future wind and solar power are possible, highlighting that wind and solar power generation remains an attractive investment under all scenarios of climate change.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2021-09
Date Awarded
2022-09
Copyright Statement
Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives Licence
Advisor
Staffell, Iain
Brayshaw, David
Gross, Robert
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain)
Grant Number
NE/L002515/1
Publisher Department
Centre for Environmental Policy
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)