This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the performance of the upcoming LISA Pathfinder geodesic explorer mission. The findings are based on the results of extensive ground testing and simulation campaigns using flight hardware, flight control and operations algorithms. The results show that, for the central experiment of measuring the stray differential acceleration between the LISA test masses, LISA Pathfinder will be able to verify the overall acceleration noise to within a factor 2 of the LISA requirement at 1 mHz and within a factor 6 at 0.1 mHz. We also discuss the key elements of the physical model of disturbances, coming from LISA Pathfinder and ground measurement that will guarantee the LISA performance.