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  5. Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation
 
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Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation
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Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation.pdf (1.95 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Toni, Francesca
Rago, Antonio
Cyras, Kristijonas
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Probabilistic Argumentation supports a form of hybrid reasoning by integrating
quantitative (probabilistic) reasoning and qualitative argumentation in a natural
way. Jury-based Probabilistic Argumentation supports the combination of opinions
by different reasoners. In this paper we show how Jury-based Probabilistic Abstract Argumentation (JPAA) and a form of Jury-based Probabilistic Assumptionbased Argumentation (JPABA) can naturally support forecasting, whereby subjective probability estimates are combined to make predictions about future occurrences of events. The form of JPABA we consider is an instance of JPAA and
results from integrating Assumption-Based Argumentation (ABA) and probability
spaces expressed by Bayesian networks, under the so-called constellation approach.
It keeps the underlying structured argumentation and probabilistic reasoning modules separate while integrating them. We show how JPAA and (the considered form
of) JPABA can be used to support forecasting by 1) supporting different forecasters (jurors) to determine the probability of arguments (and, in the JPABA case,
sentences) with respect to their own probability spaces, while sharing arguments
(and their components); and 2) supporting the aggregation of individual forecasts
to produce group forecasts.
Date Issued
2023-08-11
Date Acceptance
2023-07-10
Citation
Journal of Applied Non Classical Logics, 2023, 33 (3-4), pp.224-243
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/105331
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1080/11663081.2023.2244716
ISSN
1166-3081
Publisher
Taylor and Francis Group
Start Page
224
End Page
243
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Applied Non Classical Logics
Volume
33
Issue
3-4
Copyright Statement
©2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-08-11
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