Land Use Regression Modeling To Estimate Historic (1962-1991) Concentrations of Black Smoke and Sulfur Dioxide for Great Britain
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Land-use regression modeling was used to develop maps of annual average black smoke (BS) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations in 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991 for Great Britain on a 1 km grid for use in epidemiological studies. Models were developed in a GIS using data on land cover, the road network, and population, summarized within circular buffers around air pollution monitoring sites, together with altitude and coordinates of monitoring sites to consider global trend surfaces. Models were developed against the log-normal (LN) concentration, yielding R2 values of 0.68 (n = 534), 0.68 (n = 767), 0.41 (n = 771), and 0.39 (n = 155) for BS and 0.61 (n = 482), 0.65 (n = 733), 0.38 (n = 756), and 0.24 (n = 153) for SO2 in 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991, respectively. Model evaluation was undertaken using concentrations at an independent set of monitoring sites. For BS, values of R2 were 0.56 (n = 133), 0.41 (n = 191), 0.38 (n = 193), and 0.34 (n = 37), and for SO2 values of R2 were 0.71 (n = 121), 0.57 (n = 183), 0.26 (n = 189), and 0.31 (n = 38) for 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991, respectively. Models slightly underpredicted (fractional bias: 0∼−0.1) monitored concentrations of both pollutants for all years. This is the first study to produce historic concentration maps at a national level going back to the 1960s.
Date Issued
2011-04-15
Date Acceptance
2011-03-15
Citation
Environmental Science and Technology, 2011, 45 (8), pp.3526-3532
ISSN
0013-936X
Publisher
American Chemical Society
Start Page
3526
End Page
3532
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Science and Technology
Volume
45
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
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Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
G0801056B
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Engineering, Environmental
Environmental Sciences
Engineering
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OUTDOOR AIR-POLLUTION
GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION-SYSTEMS
FINE PARTICULATE MATTER
CHRONIC EXPOSURE
VARIABILITY
CANADA
Publication Status
Published