Arctic amplification response to individual climate drivers
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.
Date Issued
2019-07-16
Date Acceptance
2019-05-23
Citation
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124 (13), pp.6698-6717
ISSN
2169-897X
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
6698
End Page
6717
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume
124
Issue
13
Copyright Statement
©2019. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000477580200004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Arctic amplification
greenhouse gases
aerosols
climate drivers
climate change
SEA-ICE LOSS
POLAR AMPLIFICATION
VERTICAL STRUCTURE
BLACK CARBON
MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT
ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
TEMPERATURE
AEROSOL
PRECIPITATION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-06-10