SIDE-real: supernova Ia dust extinction with truncated marginal neural ratio estimation applied to real data
File(s)stae995.pdf (12.55 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We present the first fully simulation-based hierarchical analysis of the light curves of a population of low-redshift type Ia supernovæ (SNæ Ia). Our hardware-accelerated forward model, released in the Python package slicsim, includes stochastic variations of each SN’s spectral flux distribution (based on the pre-trained BayeSN model), extinction from dust in the host and in the Milky Way, redshift, and realistic instrumental noise. By utilizing truncated marginal neural ratio estimation (TMNRE), a neural network-enabled simulation-based inference technique, we implicitly marginalize over 4000 latent variables (for a set of ≈100 SNæ Ia) to efficiently infer SN Ia absolute magnitudes and host-galaxy dust properties at the population level while also constraining the parameters of individual objects. Amortization of the inference procedure allows us to obtain coverage guarantees for our results through Bayesian validation and frequentist calibration. Furthermore, we show a detailed comparison to full likelihood-based inference, implemented through Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, on simulated data and then apply TMNRE to the light curves of 86 SNæ Ia from the Carnegie Supernova Project, deriving marginal posteriors in excellent agreement with previous work. Given its ability to accommodate arbitrarily complex extensions to the forward model, e.g. different populations based on host properties, redshift evolution, complicated photometric redshift estimates, selection effects, and non-Ia contamination, without significant modifications to the inference procedure, TMNRE has the potential to become the tool of choice for cosmological parameter inference from future, large SN Ia samples.
Date Issued
2024-06
Date Acceptance
2024-04-09
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024, 530 (4), pp.3881-3896
ISSN
0035-8711
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
3881
End Page
3896
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
530
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Author(s).
Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/530/4/3881/7643658
Subjects
Astronomy & Astrophysics
BAYESIAN-INFERENCE
COSMOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS
cosmological parameters
distance scale
ENVIRONMENTAL DEPENDENCE
HOST GALAXY DUST
HUBBLE RESIDUALS
INTRINSIC SCATTER
LIKELIHOOD-FREE INFERENCE
methods: data analysis
methods: numerical
methods: statistical
PANTHEON PLUS ANALYSIS
PECULIAR VELOCITIES
PHOTOMETRIC CLASSIFICATION
Physical Sciences
Science & Technology
transients: supernovae
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-04-10