Using negative control outcomes and difference-in-differences analysis to estimate treatment effects in an entirely treated cohort: the effect of ivacaftor in cystic fibrosis
Author(s)
Newsome, Simon J
Daniel, Rhian M
Carr, Siobhan B
Bilton, Diana
Keogh, Ruth H
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
When an entire cohort of patients receives a treatment, it is difficult to estimate the treatment effect in the treated because there are no directly comparable untreated patients. Attempts can be made to find a suitable control group (e.g., historical controls), but underlying differences between the treated and untreated can result in bias. Here we show how negative control outcomes combined with difference-in-differences analysis can be used to assess bias in treatment effect estimates and obtain unbiased estimates under certain assumptions. Causal diagrams and potential outcomes are used to explain the methods and assumptions. We apply the methods to UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry data to investigate the effect of ivacaftor, introduced in 2012 for a subset of the cystic fibrosis population with a particular genotype, on lung function and annual rate (days/year) of receiving intravenous (IV) antibiotics (i.e., IV days). We consider 2 negative control outcomes: outcomes measured in the pre-ivacaftor period and outcomes among persons ineligible for ivacaftor because of their genotype. Ivacaftor was found to improve lung function in year 1 (an approximately 6.5–percentage-point increase in ppFEV1), was associated with reduced lung function decline (an approximately 0.5–percentage-point decrease in annual ppFEV1 decline, though confidence intervals included 0), and reduced the annual rate of IV days (approximately 60% over 3 years).
Date Issued
2022-01-29
Date Acceptance
2021-10-27
Citation
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, 191 (3), pp.505-515
ISSN
0002-9262
Publisher
Bloomberg School of Public Health
Start Page
505
End Page
515
Journal / Book Title
American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
191
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000764542700001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
causal inference
cystic fibrosis
cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators
difference-in-differences analysis
ivacaftor
longitudinal data
negative control outcomes
G551D
MUTATION
Publication Status
Published