Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It also
highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution.
The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a new vaccine against a future
pathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days of that pathogen threat being
recognised. We assessed the value of this mission by estimating the impact that it could
have had on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
Using a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fit to excess
mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for three different
investment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a vaccine, increasing
manufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and strengthening health systems to
enable faster vaccine roll-outs and global equity. Each scenario was compared against the
observed COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the public health and health-economic impacts
of each scenario.
Findings
If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically,
the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8.33 million (95% credible interval
7.70 – 8.68 million) deaths globally, mostly in low-middle income countries. This
corresponds to a monetary saving of $14.35 trillion (95% CrI $12.96 – $17.87) based on the
value of statistical life years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems further
increases deaths averted to 11.01 million (95% CrI 10.60 – 11.49 million). Under an
alternative scenario whereby NPIs are lifted earlier based on vaccine coverage, the 100
Days Mission alone could have reduced restrictions by 12,600 (95% CrI 12,300 – 13,100)
days globally whilst still averting 5.76 million (95% CrI 4.91 – 6.81 million) deaths.
Interpretation
Our findings demonstrate the value of the 100 Days Mission and how these can be
amplified through improvements in manufacturing and health systems equity. However,
these investments must be enhanced by prioritising a more equitable global vaccine
distribution.
Funding
Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; WHO; UK Medical
Research Council; Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It also
highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution.
The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a new vaccine against a future
pathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days of that pathogen threat being
recognised. We assessed the value of this mission by estimating the impact that it could
have had on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
Using a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fit to excess
mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for three different
investment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a vaccine, increasing
manufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and strengthening health systems to
enable faster vaccine roll-outs and global equity. Each scenario was compared against the
observed COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the public health and health-economic impacts
of each scenario.
Findings
If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically,
the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8.33 million (95% credible interval
7.70 – 8.68 million) deaths globally, mostly in low-middle income countries. This
corresponds to a monetary saving of $14.35 trillion (95% CrI $12.96 – $17.87) based on the
value of statistical life years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems further
increases deaths averted to 11.01 million (95% CrI 10.60 – 11.49 million). Under an
alternative scenario whereby NPIs are lifted earlier based on vaccine coverage, the 100
Days Mission alone could have reduced restrictions by 12,600 (95% CrI 12,300 – 13,100)
days globally whilst still averting 5.76 million (95% CrI 4.91 – 6.81 million) deaths.
Interpretation
Our findings demonstrate the value of the 100 Days Mission and how these can be
amplified through improvements in manufacturing and health systems equity. However,
these investments must be enhanced by prioritising a more equitable global vaccine
distribution.
Funding
Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; WHO; UK Medical
Research Council; Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations
Date Issued
2024-11
Date Acceptance
2024-07-01
Citation
The Lancet Global Health, 2024, 12 (11), pp.e1764-e1774
ISSN
2214-109X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
e1764
End Page
e1774
Journal / Book Title
The Lancet Global Health
Volume
12
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0
license.
license.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X24002869?via%3Dihub
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-10-16