Disease transmission and control modelling at the science-policy interface
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
McCabe, Ruth
Donnelly, Christl
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted the lives of billions across the world. Mathematical modelling has been a key tool deployed throughout the pandemic to explore the potential public health impact of an unmitigated epidemic. The results of such studies have informed government’s decisions to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus.
In this article we explore the complex relationships between models, decision-making, the media and the public during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). Doing so not only provides important historical context of COVID-19 modelling and how it has shaped the UK response, but as the pandemic continues and looking towards future pandemic preparedness, understanding these relationships and how they might be improved is critical. As such, we have synthesised information gathered via three methods: a survey to publicly listed attendees of SAGE, SPI-M and other comparable advisory bodies, interviews with science communication experts and former scientific advisors, and reviewing some of the key COVID-19 modelling literature from 2020.
Our research highlights the desire for increased bidirectional communication between modellers, decision-makers and the public, as well as the need to convey uncertainty inherent in transmission models in a clear manner. These aspects should be considered carefully ahead of the next emergency response.
In this article we explore the complex relationships between models, decision-making, the media and the public during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). Doing so not only provides important historical context of COVID-19 modelling and how it has shaped the UK response, but as the pandemic continues and looking towards future pandemic preparedness, understanding these relationships and how they might be improved is critical. As such, we have synthesised information gathered via three methods: a survey to publicly listed attendees of SAGE, SPI-M and other comparable advisory bodies, interviews with science communication experts and former scientific advisors, and reviewing some of the key COVID-19 modelling literature from 2020.
Our research highlights the desire for increased bidirectional communication between modellers, decision-makers and the public, as well as the need to convey uncertainty inherent in transmission models in a clear manner. These aspects should be considered carefully ahead of the next emergency response.
Date Issued
2021-10-12
Date Acceptance
2021-08-17
Citation
Interface Focus, 2021, 11 (6), pp.1-13
ISSN
2042-8901
Publisher
The Royal Society
Start Page
1
End Page
13
Journal / Book Title
Interface Focus
Volume
11
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsfs.2021.0013
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
COVID-19
transmission modelling
decision-making
science communication
non-pharmaceutical interventions
United Kingdom
public health policy
EPIDEMIC
SOCIETY
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-12