Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model
File(s)Margazoglou2021.pdf (3.66 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Margazoglou, Georgios
Grafke, Tobias
Laio, Alessandro
Lucarini, Valerio
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyse their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasi-potentials, and viewing the state space as an energy landscape with valleys and mountain ridges, we infer the relative likelihood of the identified multistable climate states and investigate the most likely transition trajectories as well as the expected transition times between them. Second, harnessing techniques from data science, and specifically manifold learning, we characterize the data landscape of the simulation output to find climate states and basin boundaries within a fully agnostic and unsupervised framework. Both approaches show remarkable agreement, and reveal, apart from the well known warm and snowball earth states, a third intermediate stable state in one of the two versions of PLASIM, the climate model used in this study. The combination of our approaches allows to identify how the negative feedback of ocean heat transport and entropy production via the hydrological cycle drastically change the topography of the dynamical landscape of Earth’s climate.
Date Issued
2021-06-30
Date Acceptance
2021-05-04
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2021, 477 (2250), pp.1-28
ISSN
1364-5021
Publisher
The Royal Society
Start Page
1
End Page
28
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume
477
Issue
2250
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000660774200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
climate modelling
multistability
quasi-potential theory
non-equilibrium systems
data-driven methods
manifold learning
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
STOCHASTIC RESONANCE
INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY
ENTROPY PRODUCTION
HEAT-TRANSPORT
INDUCED ESCAPE
ENERGY
CIRCULATION
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 20210019
Date Publish Online
2021-06-02