Estimating age-specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta-analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countries
Author(s)
Van Kerkhove, MD
Hirve, S
Koukounari, A
Mounts, AW
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The global impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (H1N1pdm) is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We estimate overall and age-specific prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to H1N1pdm virus and rates of H1N1pdm infection during the first year of the pandemic using data from published and unpublished H1N1pdm seroepidemiological studies. METHODS: Primary aggregate H1N1pdm serologic data from each study were stratified in standardized age groups and evaluated based on when sera were collected in relation to national or subnational peak H1N1pdm activity. Seropositivity was assessed using well-described and standardized hemagglutination inhibition (HI titers >/=32 or >/=40) and microneutralization (MN >/= 40) laboratory assays. The prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to the H1N1pdm virus was estimated for studies using sera collected prior to the start of the pandemic (between 2004 and April 2009); H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was estimated for studies in which collected both pre- and post-pandemic sera; and H1N1pdm seropositivity was calculated from studies with post-pandemic sera only (collected between December 2009-June 2010). RESULTS: Data from 27 published/unpublished studies from 19 countries/administrative regions - Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Reunion Island, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam - were eligible for inclusion. The overall age-standardized pre-pandemic prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies was 5% (95%CI 3-7%) and varied significantly by age with the highest rates among persons >/=65 years old (14% 95%CI 8-24%). Overall age-standardized H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was 24% (95%CI 20-27%) and varied significantly by age with the highest in children 5-19 (47% 95%CI 39-55%) and 0-4 years old (36% 95%CI 30-43%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results offer unique insight into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic and highlight the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and for their inclusion in pre-pandemic preparedness plans. Our results taken together with recent global pandemic respiratory-associated mortality estimates suggest that the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0.02%.
Date Issued
2013-09
Date Acceptance
2012-12-10
Citation
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 2013, 7 (5), pp.872-886
ISSN
1750-2640
Publisher
Wiley Open Access
Start Page
872
End Page
886
Journal / Book Title
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Volume
7
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23331969
Grant Number
G0600719B
NF-SI-0508-10179
MR/K010174/1B
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Virology
A(H1N1)pdm09
cross-reactive antibodies
cumulative incidence
H1N1pdm
seroprevalence
A H1N1 VIRUS
HEMAGGLUTINATION INHIBITION
HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION
ANTIBODY-RESPONSE
HONG-KONG
INFECTIONS
PREVALENCE
A/H1N1
COHORT
SEROPREVALENCE
Age Factors
Antibodies, Viral
Humans
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
Influenza, Human
Pandemics
Seroepidemiologic Studies
United States
H1N1pdm serology working group
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health And Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2013-01-21