Estimating the population benefits of blood pressure lowering: a wide-angled mendelian randomization study in UK biobank
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
The causal relevance of elevated blood pressure for several cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is uncertain, as is the population impact of blood pressure lowering. This study systematically assesses evidence of causality for various CVDs in a 2‐sample Mendelian randomization framework, and estimates the potential reduction in the prevalence of these diseases attributable to long‐term population shifts in the distribution of systolic blood pressure (SBP).
Methods and Results
We investigated associations of genetically predicted SBP as predicted by 256 genetic variants with 21 CVDs in UK Biobank, a population‐based cohort of UK residents. The sample consisted of 376 703 participants of European ancestry, aged 40 to 69 years at recruitment. Genetically predicted SBP was positively associated with 14 of the outcomes (P<0.002), including dilated cardiomyopathy, endocarditis, peripheral vascular disease, and rheumatic heart disease. Using genetic variation to estimate the long‐term impact of blood pressure lowering on disease in a middle‐aged to early late‐aged UK‐based population, population reductions in SBP were predicted to result in an overall 16.9% (95% CI, 12.2%–21.3%) decrease in morbidity for a 5–mm Hg decrease from a population mean of 137.7 mm Hg, 30.8% (95% CI, 22.8%–38.0%) decrease for a 10–mm Hg decrease, and 56.2% (95% CI, 43.7%–65.9%) decrease for a 22.7–mm Hg decrease in SBP (22.7 mm Hg represents a shift from the current mean SBP to 115 mm Hg).
Conclusions
Risk of many CVDs is influenced by long‐term differences in SBP. The burden of a broad range of CVDs could be substantially reduced by long‐term population‐wide reductions in the distribution of blood pressure.
The causal relevance of elevated blood pressure for several cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is uncertain, as is the population impact of blood pressure lowering. This study systematically assesses evidence of causality for various CVDs in a 2‐sample Mendelian randomization framework, and estimates the potential reduction in the prevalence of these diseases attributable to long‐term population shifts in the distribution of systolic blood pressure (SBP).
Methods and Results
We investigated associations of genetically predicted SBP as predicted by 256 genetic variants with 21 CVDs in UK Biobank, a population‐based cohort of UK residents. The sample consisted of 376 703 participants of European ancestry, aged 40 to 69 years at recruitment. Genetically predicted SBP was positively associated with 14 of the outcomes (P<0.002), including dilated cardiomyopathy, endocarditis, peripheral vascular disease, and rheumatic heart disease. Using genetic variation to estimate the long‐term impact of blood pressure lowering on disease in a middle‐aged to early late‐aged UK‐based population, population reductions in SBP were predicted to result in an overall 16.9% (95% CI, 12.2%–21.3%) decrease in morbidity for a 5–mm Hg decrease from a population mean of 137.7 mm Hg, 30.8% (95% CI, 22.8%–38.0%) decrease for a 10–mm Hg decrease, and 56.2% (95% CI, 43.7%–65.9%) decrease for a 22.7–mm Hg decrease in SBP (22.7 mm Hg represents a shift from the current mean SBP to 115 mm Hg).
Conclusions
Risk of many CVDs is influenced by long‐term differences in SBP. The burden of a broad range of CVDs could be substantially reduced by long‐term population‐wide reductions in the distribution of blood pressure.
Date Issued
2021-09-07
Date Acceptance
2021-07-13
Citation
Journal of the American Heart Association, 2021, 10 (17), pp.1-23
ISSN
2047-9980
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1
End Page
23
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the American Heart Association
Volume
10
Issue
17
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000693361200033&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems
Cardiovascular System & Cardiology
cardiovascular disease
genetic epidemiology
high blood pressure
hypertension
Mendelian randomization
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e021098
Date Publish Online
2021-08-28