Flexibility and real options analysis in power system generation expansion planning under uncertainty
File(s)24725854.2021.pdf (1.66 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Caunhye, AM
Cardin, M-A
Rahmat, M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Over many years, there has been a drive in the electricity industry towards better integration of environmentally friendly and renewable generation resources for power systems. Such resources show highly variable availability, impacting the design and performance of power systems. In this paper, we propose using a stochastic programming approach to optimize generation expansion planning (GEP), with explicit consideration of generator output capacity uncertainty. Flexibility implementation - via real options exercised in response to uncertainty realizations - is considered as an important design approach to the GEP problem. It more effectively captures upside opportunities, while reducing exposure to downside risks. A decision-rule based approach to real options modeling is used, combining conditional-go and finite adaptability principles. The solutions provide decision makers with easy-to-use guidelines with threshold values from which to exercise the options in operations. To demonstrate application of the proposed methodologies and decision rules, a case study situated in the Midwest United States is used. The case study demonstrates how to quantify the value of flexibility, and showcases the usefulness of the proposed approach.
Date Issued
2022-09-01
Date Acceptance
2021-07-28
Citation
IISE Transactions, 2022, 54 (9), pp.832-844
ISSN
2472-5854
Publisher
Taylor and Francis
Start Page
832
End Page
844
Journal / Book Title
IISE Transactions
Volume
54
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
Identifier
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24725854.2021.1965699
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Engineering
Flexibility
real options
stochastic programming
power systems
risk analysis
systems design and analysis
uncertainty
LINEAR-PROGRAMMING MODEL
TRANSMISSION EXPANSION
ROBUST OPTIMIZATION
RELIABILITY
COORDINATION
FORMULATION
RENEWABLES
DESIGN
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-08-12