Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for knowledge transfer across engineering fleets via multitask learning
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilizing an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different subgroups, representing (1) use-type, (2) component, or (3) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet (15% and 13% increases in predictive log-likelihood of hazard) and power prediction in a wind farm (up to 82% reduction in the standard deviation of maximum output prediction). In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when subfleets are allowed to share correlated information at different levels in the hierarchy; the (averaged) reduction in standard deviation for interpretable parameters in the survival analysis is 70%, alongside 32% in wind farm power models. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e., parameter). Successes in both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability in practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.
Date Issued
2023-05-01
Date Acceptance
2022-08-01
Citation
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2023, 38 (7), pp.821-848
ISSN
1093-9687
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
821
End Page
848
Journal / Book Title
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume
38
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Editor.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000837583600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Grant Number
TUR-000804
Subjects
Computer Science
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Construction & Building Technology
Engineering
Engineering, Civil
PARAMETERS
Science & Technology
Technology
Transportation
Transportation Science & Technology
WIND
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-08-08