On the insufficiency of arbitrarily precise covariance matrices: non-Gaussian weak lensing likelihoods
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Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Heavens, AF
Sellentin, E
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We investigate whether a Gaussian likelihood, as routinely assumed in the analysis of cosmological
data, is supported by simulated survey data. We define test statistics, based on a
novel method that first destroys Gaussian correlations in a data set, and then measures the nonGaussian
correlations that remain. This procedure flags pairs of data points that depend on each
other in a non-Gaussian fashion, and thereby identifies where the assumption of a Gaussian
likelihood breaks down. Using this diagnosis, we find that non-Gaussian correlations in the
CFHTLenS cosmic shear correlation functions are significant. With a simple exclusion of the
most contaminated data points, the posterior for s8 is shifted without broadening, but we find
no significant reduction in the tension with s8 derived from Planck cosmic microwave background
data. However, we also show that the one-point distributions of the correlation statistics
are noticeably skewed, such that sound weak-lensing data sets are intrinsically likely to lead
to a systematically low lensing amplitude being inferred. The detected non-Gaussianities get
larger with increasing angular scale such that for future wide-angle surveys such as Euclid
or LSST, with their very small statistical errors, the large-scale modes are expected to be
increasingly affected. The shifts in posteriors may then not be negligible and we recommend
that these diagnostic tests be run as part of future analyses.
data, is supported by simulated survey data. We define test statistics, based on a
novel method that first destroys Gaussian correlations in a data set, and then measures the nonGaussian
correlations that remain. This procedure flags pairs of data points that depend on each
other in a non-Gaussian fashion, and thereby identifies where the assumption of a Gaussian
likelihood breaks down. Using this diagnosis, we find that non-Gaussian correlations in the
CFHTLenS cosmic shear correlation functions are significant. With a simple exclusion of the
most contaminated data points, the posterior for s8 is shifted without broadening, but we find
no significant reduction in the tension with s8 derived from Planck cosmic microwave background
data. However, we also show that the one-point distributions of the correlation statistics
are noticeably skewed, such that sound weak-lensing data sets are intrinsically likely to lead
to a systematically low lensing amplitude being inferred. The detected non-Gaussianities get
larger with increasing angular scale such that for future wide-angle surveys such as Euclid
or LSST, with their very small statistical errors, the large-scale modes are expected to be
increasingly affected. The shifts in posteriors may then not be negligible and we recommend
that these diagnostic tests be run as part of future analyses.
Date Issued
2017-09-27
Date Acceptance
2017-09-21
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2017, 473, pp.2355-2363
ISSN
0035-8711
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
2355
End Page
2363
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
473
Copyright Statement
© The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Science and Technology Facilities Council
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
Grant Number
ST-N000838
ST/N000838/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
methods: data analysis
methods: statistical
cosmology: observations
CFHTLENS
MODEL
0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences
Publication Status
Published