Kesho’ scenario development for supporting water-energy-food security under uncertain future conditions in Zanzibar
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Social-ecological interactions mediate water–energy–food security in small developing islands, but community-scale insights are underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future. This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore water–energy–food futures using the “Kesho” (meaning “tomorrow” in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of change impacted water–energy–food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario. Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management, and Settlement Planning. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental change, community participation in decision making, effective protection of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action towards effectively strengthening water–energy–food security in Zanzibar.
Date Issued
2024-02-05
Date Acceptance
2024-02-01
Citation
Land, 2024, 13 (195)
ISSN
2073-445X
Publisher
MDPI AG
Journal / Book Title
Land
Volume
13
Issue
195
Copyright Statement
© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).
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Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Studies
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
livelihoods
nexus
climate change
development
ecosystems
western Indian ocean
LAND-COVER CHANGE
ADAPTATION
MANAGEMENT
CONSERVATION
CHALLENGES
PATHWAYS
CLIMATE
TOURISM
ISLAND
TRADE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
2
Date Publish Online
2024-02-05