Argumentatively coherent judgmental forecasting
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Gorur, Deniz
Rago, Antonio
Toni, Francesca
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is useful to study the properties of the forecasts from an argumentative perspective. In this paper, we advocate and formally define a property of argumentative coherence, which, in essence, requires that a forecaster’s reasoning is coherent with their forecast. We then conduct three evaluations with our notion of coherence. First, we assess the impact of enforcing coherence on human forecasters as well as on Large Language Model (LLM)-based forecasters, given that they have recently shown to be competitive with human forecasters. In both cases, we show that filtering out incoherent predictions improves forecasting accuracy consistently, supporting the practical value of coherence in both human and LLM-based forecasting. Then, via crowd-sourced user experiments, we show that, despite its apparent intuitiveness and usefulness, users do not generally align with this coherence property. This points to the need to integrate, within argumentation-based judgmental forecasting, mechanisms to filter out incoherent opinions before obtaining group forecasting predictions.
Date Issued
2025-10-25
Date Acceptance
2025-07-11
Citation
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications, 2025, 413, pp.1695-1702
ISBN
978-1-64368-631-8
ISSN
0922-6389
Publisher
IOS Press
Start Page
1695
End Page
1702
Journal / Book Title
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications
Volume
413
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Authors. This article is published online with Open Access by IOS Press and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0).
License URL
Identifier
10.3233/FAIA250997
Source
28th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2025-10-25
Finish Date
2025-10-30
Coverage Spatial
Bologna, Italy