Valuing reductions in the risk of death in benefit–cost analyses of environment- and climate-health actions
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Economic evaluation is key for efficient allocation of resources in health and related sectors. Actions addressing environmental risk
factors and climate change can avert millions of deaths annually, yet valuing reductions in the risk of dying is challenging in benefit–cost
analyses. We developed an interim statistical protocol to estimate the value per statistical life for World Health Organization (WHO) Member
States, building on the 2019 benefit–cost analysis reference case and latest evidence. Using gross national income per capita based on
purchasing power parity, we calculated national estimates for 2024 and projected values to 2100. We aggregated these estimates to produce
global, regional and country income group averages, and additional sets for sensitivity and scenario analyses, including for alternative
climate change scenarios. Our estimates cover 93.8% (182/194) of Member States, representing 98.4% (7.99 billion/8.12 billion) of the
global population. The global average value per statistical life in 2024 was 3.76 million international dollars. By 2100, the global average is
projected to increase by 159.8% to 9.77 million international dollars. These estimates provide a basis for valuing expected deaths averted
by environment- and climate-health interventions, promoting comparability across analyses. Limitations include reliance on extrapolated
values and uncertainty in income projections. More research, especially in low- and middle-income countries, is needed. Because value per
statistical life estimates depend on income, analysts must supplement benefit–cost analysis with distributional analyses of benefits and
costs across populations. Until WHO updates its recommended methods, these interim estimates offer a pragmatic tool for policy analysis.
factors and climate change can avert millions of deaths annually, yet valuing reductions in the risk of dying is challenging in benefit–cost
analyses. We developed an interim statistical protocol to estimate the value per statistical life for World Health Organization (WHO) Member
States, building on the 2019 benefit–cost analysis reference case and latest evidence. Using gross national income per capita based on
purchasing power parity, we calculated national estimates for 2024 and projected values to 2100. We aggregated these estimates to produce
global, regional and country income group averages, and additional sets for sensitivity and scenario analyses, including for alternative
climate change scenarios. Our estimates cover 93.8% (182/194) of Member States, representing 98.4% (7.99 billion/8.12 billion) of the
global population. The global average value per statistical life in 2024 was 3.76 million international dollars. By 2100, the global average is
projected to increase by 159.8% to 9.77 million international dollars. These estimates provide a basis for valuing expected deaths averted
by environment- and climate-health interventions, promoting comparability across analyses. Limitations include reliance on extrapolated
values and uncertainty in income projections. More research, especially in low- and middle-income countries, is needed. Because value per
statistical life estimates depend on income, analysts must supplement benefit–cost analysis with distributional analyses of benefits and
costs across populations. Until WHO updates its recommended methods, these interim estimates offer a pragmatic tool for policy analysis.
Date Issued
2026-04-01
Date Acceptance
2025-10-21
Citation
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2026, 104 (4), pp.246-258
ISSN
0042-9686
Publisher
WHO Press
Start Page
246
End Page
258
Journal / Book Title
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Volume
104
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2026 The authors; licensee World Health Organization. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution IGO License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/legalcode), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any reproduction of this article there should not be any suggestion that WHO or this article endorse any specific organization or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article’s original URL.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41924340
PII: BLT.25.294080
Subjects
Humans
Climate Change
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Global Health
World Health Organization
Mortality
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Switzerland
Date Publish Online
2026-01-22