How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hanna, Richard
Gross, Robert
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Scenarios may be qualitative or quantitative, the latter of which can be developed using energy systems models. This study explores how different energy systems models and scenarios explicitly represent and assess potential disruptions and discontinuities. The focus is on futures studies and forward-looking scenario and modelling exercises. We apply definitions of ‘emergent’ (uncoordinated) and ‘purposive’ (coordinated) disruption to a systematic review on how energy systems models and scenarios have been used to capture disruption and discontinuity. We first conducted a review of reviews of energy models and scenarios to provide an overview of their common classifications. Additional searches then sought studies which use different types of models and scenarios to explore disruption and discontinuity. We analyse a subset of 30 of these modelling or scenario studies in which authors self-identify and represent disruption or discontinuity, finding that the most frequently used methods were qualitative, exploratory foresight scenarios or agent-based models. We conclude that policy makers could prepare more effectively for social, economic and political disruption by integrating multidisciplinary insights from social and political sciences, engineering and economics through a broader range of methods: exploratory, foresight scenarios, simulation and agent-based models and repurposed energy systems optimisation models.
Date Issued
2021-02-01
Date Acceptance
2020-10-16
Citation
Energy Policy, 2021, 149 (1)
ISSN
0301-4215
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Energy Policy
Volume
149
Issue
1
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306959?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
EP/L024756/1
Subjects
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
111984
Date Publish Online
2020-11-06