Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Köberle, Alexandre C
Rochedo, Pedro RR
Lucena, André FP
Szklo, Alexandre
Schaeffer, Roberto
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission scenarios for Brazil for the 2010–2050 period that cost-effectively raise ambition to levels consistent with PA targets. Our results reinforce the fundamental role of the agriculture, forest, and land use (AFOLU) sectors and explore inter-sectoral linkages to power generation and transportation. We identify transportation as a prime candidate for decarbonization, leveraging Brazil’s already low-carbon electricity production and its high bioenergy production. Results indicate the most important mitigation measures are electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet for passenger transportation, biodiesel and biokerosene production via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from lignocellulosic feedstock, and intensification of agricultural production. The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as netzero deforestation make significant contributions. We identify opportunities for Brazil, but synergies and trade-offs across sectors should be minded when designing climate policies.
Date Issued
2020-10-02
Date Acceptance
2020-08-30
Citation
Climatic Change, 2020, 162, pp.1823-1842
ISSN
0165-0009
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
1823
End Page
1842
Journal / Book Title
Climatic Change
Volume
162
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which
permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and
indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's
Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included
in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or
exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy
of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and
indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's
Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included
in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or
exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy
of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-020-02856-6
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Brazil emissions
Climate mitigation
Bioenergy and biofuels
Low-carbon transition
Mitigation scenarios
Integrated assessment model
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
CARBON CAPTURE
ETHANOL DISTILLERIES
COSTS
INTENSIFICATION
IMPACT
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-10-02