Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The 2013–2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.
Date Issued
2017-04-20
Date Acceptance
2017-03-02
Citation
Nature, 2017, 544 (7650), pp.309-315
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
309
End Page
315
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
544
Issue
7650
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000399524400029&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
REAL-TIME
OUTBREAK
DISEASE
EVOLUTION
DYNAMICS
GUINEA
TRANSMISSION
MEASLES
HYPERMUTATION
SURVEILLANCE
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-04-12