Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India.
File(s)Holt et al J Roy Soc Int 2023.pdf (8.78 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.
Date Issued
2023-03
Date Acceptance
2023-02-17
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2023, 20 (200), pp.1-11
ISSN
1742-5662
Publisher
The Royal Society
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
20
Issue
200
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36882115
Subjects
Animals
Brucellosis
Brucellosis, Bovine
Cattle
Cross-Sectional Studies
India
Livestock
Seroepidemiologic Studies
brucellosis
dairy cattle
India
s19 vaccination
transmission model
zoonosis
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2023-03-08