Towards explainable weather forecasting through FastLAS
File(s)LPNMR_2024-7.pdf (1.62 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Weather forecasting is important for saving lives, protecting property, and supporting economic activities. It provides timely warnings for severe weather, improves agricultural planning, and aids in disaster management. Neural networks and deep learning methods can achieve impressive accuracy in weather prediction, but their black-box nature lacks in explainability. To address this limitation, we investigated the potential of FastLAS, an Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) framework, to produce reliable and, more important, explainable weather predictions. FastLAS learns ASP programs whose syntax and structural semantics resemble natural human language, making them easily understandable and interpretable by humans. The supportedness of stable models allows a clear explanation of the predictions. Our empirical evaluation on data from an Italian weather forecasting center shows that our approach is capable of learning predictive models from small dataset (a few samples instead of the thousands needed by neural networks) achieving an accuracy higher than statistical machine learning base lines.
Date Issued
2024-10-09
Date Acceptance
2024-10-01
Citation
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2024, 15245, pp.262-275
ISBN
9783031742088
ISSN
0302-9743
Publisher
Springer Nature Switzerland
Start Page
262
End Page
275
Journal / Book Title
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Volume
15245
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-74209-5_20
Source
17th International Conference, LPNMR 2024
Subjects
Artificial Intelligence & Image Processing
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2024-10-11
Finish Date
2024-10-14
Coverage Spatial
Dallas, TX, USA
Date Publish Online
2024-10-09