Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact-An investigation using mathematical models
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings.
Date Issued
2018-01-18
Date Acceptance
2017-12-27
Citation
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 2018, 12 (1)
ISSN
1935-2735
Publisher
PUBLIC LIBRARY OF SCIENCE
Journal / Book Title
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
Volume
12
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
©
2018
Davis
et al. This is an open
access
article
distributed
under
the terms
of the
Creative
Commons
Attribution
License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),
which
permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided
the original
author
and source
are credited.
2018
Davis
et al. This is an open
access
article
distributed
under
the terms
of the
Creative
Commons
Attribution
License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),
which
permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided
the original
author
and source
are credited.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000424022700053&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Parasitology
Tropical Medicine
FREE-LIVING STAGES
GASTROINTESTINAL NEMATODE INFECTIONS
ANTHELMINTIC RESISTANCE
HAEMONCHUS-CONTORTUS
HELMINTH INFECTIONS
SIMULATED RAINFALL
SUUM EGGS
SHEEP
PARASITES
TEMPERATURE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e0006195
Date Publish Online
2018-01-18