Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks
File(s)Liu_et_al-2022-Communications_Earth_&_Environment.pdf (1.34 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Liu, Mengmeng
Prentice, Iain Colin
Menviel, Laurie
Harrison, Sandy P
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
There are large uncertainties in the estimation of greenhouse-gas climate feedback. Recent observations do not provide strong constraints because they are short and complicated by human interventions, while model-based estimates differ considerably. Rapid climate changes during the last glacial period (Dansgaard-Oeschger events), observed near-globally, were comparable in both rate and magnitude to current and projected 21st century climate warming and therefore provide a relevant constraint on feedback strength. Here we use these events to quantify the centennial-scale feedback strength of CO2, CH4 and N2O by relating global mean temperature changes, simulated by an appropriately forced low-resolution climate model, to the radiative forcing of these greenhouse gases derived from their concentration changes in ice-core records. We derive feedback estimates (expressed as dimensionless gain) of 0.14 ± 0.04 for CO2, 0.10 ± 0.02 for CH4, and 0.09 ± 0.03 for N2O. This indicates that much lower or higher estimates of gains, particularly some previously published values for CO2, are unrealistic.
Date Issued
2022-08-30
Date Acceptance
2022-08-16
Citation
Communications Earth & Environment, 2022, 3 (1)
ISSN
2662-4435
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
Communications Earth & Environment
Volume
3
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2022
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
© The Author(s) 2022
License URL
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000847685800002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
787203
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Geology
MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY
GREENLAND ICE CORE
ANTARCTIC ICE
TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVITY
CIRCULATION
RESOLUTION
CARBON
PATTERNS
METHANE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 196