Background Women who engage in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa have a high risk of acquiring HIV infection. HIV
incidence has declined among all women in sub-Saharan Africa, but trends among women who engage in sex work
are poorly characterised. We synthesised data on HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work in
sub-Saharan Africa and compared these with the total female population to understand relative incidence and trends
over time.
Methods We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 1990, to Feb 28, 2024, and
grey literature for studies that reported empirical estimates of HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work
in any sub-Saharan Africa country. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) compared with total female population
incidence estimates matched for age, district, and year, did a meta-analysis of IRRs, and used a continuous mixed effects model to estimate changes in IRR over time.
Findings From 32 studies done between 1985 and 2020, 2194 new HIV infections were observed among women who
engage in sex work over 51 490 person-years. Median HIV incidence was 4·3 per 100 person years (IQR 2·8–7·0 per
100 person-years). Incidence among women who engage in sex work was eight times higher than matched total
population women (IRR 7·8 [95% CI 5·1–11·8]), with larger relative difference in western and central Africa (19·9
[9·6–41·0]) than in eastern and southern Africa (4·9 [3·4–7·1]). There was no evidence that IRRs changed over time
(IRR per 5 years: 0·9 [0·7–1·2]).
Interpretation Across sub-Saharan Africa, HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work remains
disproportionately high compared with the total female population. However, constant relative incidence over time
indicates HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work has declined at a similar rate. Location-specific data
for women who engage in sex work incidence are sparse, but improved surveillance and standardisation of incidence
measurement approaches could fill these gaps. Sustained and enhanced HIV prevention for women who engage in
sex work is crucial to address continuing inequalities and ensure declines in new HIV infections.
Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health.