Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence
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Published version
Author(s)
McCormack, Clare P
Ghani, Azra C
Ferguson, Neil M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes. Therefore, an understanding of fine-scale mosquito population dynamics is critical to understanding spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and persistence at those scales. However, mathematical models of dengue and malaria transmission, which consider the dynamics of mosquito larvae, generally do not account for the fragmented structure of larval breeding sites. Here, we develop a stochastic metapopulation model of mosquito population dynamics, and explore the impact of accounting for breeding site fragmentation when modelling fine-scale mosquito population dynamics. We find that, when mosquito population densities are low, fragmentation can lead to a reduction in population size, with population persistence dependent on mosquito dispersal and features of the underlying landscape. We conclude that using non-spatial models to represent fine-scale mosquito population dynamics may substantially underestimate the stochastic volatility of those populations.
Date Issued
2019-07-25
Date Acceptance
2019-06-27
Citation
Communications Biology, 2019, 2 (1)
ISSN
2399-3642
Publisher
Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)
Journal / Book Title
Communications Biology
Volume
2
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-019-0525-0
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Models, Theoretical
Mosquito Vectors
Metapopulation
Ecology
Infectious Diseases
Dengue
Malaria
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
273 (2019)
Date Publish Online
2019-07-25