A robust decision-making approach in climate policy design for possible net zero futures
File(s)1-s2.0-S146290112400220X-main.pdf (2.77 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The energy modelling community’s analysis of net zero often relies on approaches that hide the extent of uncertainty. Meanwhile the extent of uncertainty involved in the realisation of net zero is proliferating. Conventional consolidative modelling approaches lack of transparency is distorting decision making and policy design around net zero. This contribution uses the UK’s Committee on Climate Changes 6th Carbon Budget as a case study. An exploratory, Robust Decision-Making approach is used to highlight the fragility of conventional UK modelling approaches in shaping national climate policy. A new suite of tools, orientation of analysis and mixed approaches are needed to address the extent of complexity, uncertainty and emergence in possible net zero futures. Only then will robust, inclusive and realisable climate policy be designed.
Date Issued
2024-12
Date Acceptance
2024-09-02
Citation
Environmental Science and Policy, 2024, 162
ISSN
1462-9011
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Science and Policy
Volume
162
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290112400220X?via%3Dihub
Subjects
CONTEXTS
Decision making
Deep uncertainty
DEEP UNCERTAINTY
Distortive effects of optimization
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Net zero policy design
Robustness
Science & Technology
Trade-offs
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
103886
Date Publish Online
2024-09-16