Estimated climate impact of replacing agriculture as the primary food production system
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
MacDougall, Andrew H
Rogelj, Joeri
Withey, Patrick
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Global agriculture is the second largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change after the burning of fossil fuels. However the potential to mitigate the agricultural climate change contribution is limited and must account for the imperative to supply food for the global population. Advances in microbial biomass cultivation technology have recently opened a pathway to growing substantial amounts of food for humans or livestock on a small fraction of the land presently used for agriculture. Here we investigate the potential climate change impacts of the end of agriculture as the primary human food production system. We find that replacing agricultural primary production with electrically powered microbial primary production before a low-carbon energy transition has been completed could redirect renewable energy away from replacing fossil fuels, potentially leading to higher total CO2 emissions. If deployed after a transition to renewable energy, the technology could alleviate agriculturally driven climate change. These diverging pathways originate from the reversibility of agricultural driven global warming and the irreversibility of fossil-fuel CO2 driven warming. The range of reduced warming from the replacement of agriculture ranges from −0.22 (−0.29 to −0.04) ∘C for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1 −1.9 to −0.85 (−0.99 to −0.39) ∘C for SSP4-6.0. For limited temperature target overshoot scenarios, replacement of agriculture could eliminate or reduce the need for active atmospheric CO2 removal to achieve the necessary peak and decline in global warming.
Date Issued
2021-12-06
Date Acceptance
2021-11-16
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (12)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
16
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000727025100001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
agriculture
bacterial biomass
CARBON-CYCLE
climate change
CO2
COMMITMENT
DEFORESTATION
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
LAND
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
negative emissions
Physical Sciences
REDUCE
REMOVAL
Science & Technology
ZERO EMISSIONS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 125010