A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Mingyu, Li
Pelz, Setu
Lamboll, Robin
Wang, Can
Rogelj, Joeri
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and their warming contributions. In this study, we address this gap and define a global warming budget applicable to all anthropogenic greenhouse gases that is allocated to countries based on principles drawn from international treaties and environmental law. We find that by 2021 a range of 84 to 90 countries, including but not limited to all major developed countries, exhausted their budget share compatible with keeping warming to 1.5 °C (with 50% likelihood) under all allocation approaches considered in this study. A similar picture emerges for limiting warming to 2 °C (with 67% likelihood). A large group of countries will hence exceed their fair shares even if their pledges under the Paris Agreement represent their deepest possible emission reductions. Considerations of fairness should therefore start exploring aspects beyond domestic emissions reductions.
Date Issued
2025-01-26
Date Acceptance
2025-01-17
Citation
Nature Communications, 2025, 16
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
16
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6
Grant Number
101003536
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
1043
Date Publish Online
2025-01-26