A stochastic optimisation framework for integrating photovoltaic systems, heat pumps, and energy storage in buildings
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Published version
Author(s)
Olympios, Andreas V
Mersch, Matthias
Kourougianni, Fanourios
Markides, Christos N
Pantaleo, Antonio M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this study, we present a novel stochastic optimisation framework for the selection, sizing, and operation of photovoltaic systems combined with heating, cooling, and energy storage technologies in buildings. The framework integrates building energy modelling, technology cost and performance analysis, and energy system optimisation while addressing future uncertainties in technology and electricity prices. A bi-objective optimisation problem is developed to minimise both the expected total system cost and the variability of costs under uncertain inputs. The tool encompasses various photovoltaic technologies (polycrystalline, monocrystalline and monocrystalline with one-axis tracking), electric heat pumps (air-to-water, ground-to-water, and reversible air-to-air), and energy storage systems (battery and hot-water cylinder). Electricity, heating, and cooling requirements are obtained from a physics-based building model of a typical office and a residential building in Nicosia, Cyprus. Results of cost-effective technology portfolios show that replacing traditional systems with photovoltaic technologies, lithium-ion batteries, reversible air-to-air heat pumps, and air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce costs and emissions. Incorporating cost-variability minimisation into the objective function of the optimisation problem leads to a more diverse technology mix, enhancing energy independence and robustness at the expense of higher expected costs. A well-balanced bi–objective approach where both objectives are simultaneously optimised increases expected costs by 2–3% depending on the building type, while reducing the worst–case costs by 5% and narrowing the range of cost variability by up to 29%. The results demonstrate the significance of incorporating uncertainty into building energy system design optimisation.
Date Issued
2025-11-01
Date Acceptance
2025-06-24
Citation
Applied Thermal Engineering, 2025, 278 (Part D)
ISSN
1359-4311
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Journal / Book Title
Applied Thermal Engineering
Volume
278
Issue
Part D
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2025.127312
Subjects
Applied Thermal Engineering buildings
energy storage
heat pump
photovoltaic
stochastic optimisation
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
127312
Date Publish Online
2025-06-25