Using vine copulas to generate representative system states for machine learning
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The increasing uncertainty that surrounds electricity system operation renders security assessment a highly challenging task; the range of possible operating states expands, rendering traditional approaches based on heuristic practices and ad hoc analysis obsolete. In turn, machine learning can be used to construct surrogate models approximating the system's security boundary in the region of operation. To this end, past system history can be useful for generating anticipated system states suitable for training. However, inferring the underlying data model, to allow high-density sampling, is problematic due to the large number of variables, their complex marginal probability distributions and the non-linear dependence structure they exhibit. In this paper we adopt the C-Vine pair-copula decomposition scheme; clustering and principal component transformation stages are introduced, followed by a truncation to the pairwise dependency modelling, enabling efficient fitting and sampling of large datasets. Using measurements from the French grid, we show that a machine learning training database sampled from the proposed method can produce binary security classifiers with superior predictive capability compared to other approaches.
Date Issued
2019-01
Date Acceptance
2018-07-22
Citation
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2019, 34 (1), pp.225-235
ISSN
0885-8950
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Start Page
225
End Page
235
Journal / Book Title
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume
34
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Identifier
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8418852
Grant Number
PO: 5510854 - WVR3114N
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Engineering
Copulas
data clustering
machine learning
Monte Carlo simulation
parametric statistics
principal component analysis
risk assessment
stochastic dependence
uncertainty analysis
RANDOM-VARIABLES
MODEL
DEPENDENCE
WIND
SET
0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-07-24